Pacific's response to the Snow/Ice Storm

The performance of Pacific City Council President Leanne Guier during the recent snow and ice storm deserves applause.  She stepped up to the plate, took charge and worked to meet the needs of the Citizens of Pacific.  This is what an elected official is supposed to do.

Like the Captain of the Costa Concordia, an elected official must put the needs of those in their care ahead of their own.  Unlike the captain of that ill-fated cruise ship she did not abandon her post and took charge, opened the Senior Center as a warming shelter and checked on vulnerable citizens who were still without power.  This demonstration of her putting the citizens first deserves applause and appreciation.

When an emergency occurs, it is easy for many people to just take care of their own needs, maybe those of their neighbors and if possible some vulnerable citizens they may know.  Elected Officials must look at emergencies on a much different scale.  They have legal and moral obligations to take all appropriate steps to protect lives and property, prevent or limit damage to the environment and to preserve the economic viability of local business.  A Declaration of Emergency is often required to authorize the extraordinary assistance and work of city staff and emergency personnel.  Although the City of Pacific’s response is under the Incident Command System, elected leadership is required for overall direction, legal authority and to make sure the needs of all citizens are met.  As policy leaders are the only group that deals with all aspects of an emergency (Police, Fire, Public Works, Administration, Citizens), they need to realize the importance of their actions.  Every example of a failure in emergency and disaster response is a result of a failure of policy leaders to do their job.

There were some issues that the city will need to address as they go through the After Action Review / Improvement Plan (AAR/IP) process.  The key is to identify where these issues were, identify the cause of the problems and then fix these gaps with a proactive improvement plan.  The key to this process is not to assign blame but to fix problems.  The training gaps, logistical issues and resource problems can all be addressed in this process.  No amount of planning will deal with every issue during an emergency.  A strong situational awareness and the flexibility to adapt to changing circumstance are important. But if you adopt the philosophy of constantly looking to improve, the citizens of this city and of this nation will always be better off.

Bak's Sandpile and River Management

Per Bak, the Danish Physicist who described the concept of complex and organized instability by use of sand could have also used the White River and river management.  Bak described how if you dropped sand, one grain at a time from the same location that a cone would form as each grain was added to the pile.  At indeterminable intervals, the cone would reach a degree of slope that was not sustainable and a small avalanche would occur.  It could come from the adding of one grain, or it could come from adding a thousand grains, because of the many other factors that came into play.  As the grains of sand piled up, the cone would form organized instability, where it may look stable and predictable but in fact be purely unpredictable and unstable. Glen Held, a scientist working for IBM in New York’s Watson Research Center duplicated this concept and discovered another constant in this theory, and that is even duplicating the manufacture of the sandpiles exactly, because of the complex factors that come into play, no two piles would act the same.

Applying this concept to the issues on the White River in Washington State we have a river that we know transports an extremely high amount of gravel (estimated by USGS to be over 750,000 tons of sand and gravel each year) we can understand why in spite of millions of dollars being spent on modeling and studies to address flooding on the lower White River, the flood threat continues to increase. With the myriad of forces that come into play on any river system, I really question the ability to really accurately model the impact of mitigation efforts with accuracy.  A flood on the White River is so complex and has so many factors that you could release the exact amount of water a thousand times and see different results every time.

Among this multitude of external factors that can impact flooding is ground water saturation, tributary inflow, how much debris is currently moving down the river and where it settles.  Applying Bak’s hypothesis to the White River explains why the water released in January 2009 that was expected to create only nuisance flooding actually flooded 101 homes and 15 businesses, many of whom were outside of the 500 year flood plain.  Much of the same way of thinking that was used looking at the capacity of the river in 2009 is being used to create the modeling of mitigation efforts today.

In a previous blog post I discussed how we need to reexamine the flood plain management principles that have failed us over the past 20 years.  Adding the fact that the river systems are not just simple models that can be predicted, it further shows why our river management policies should be closely reviewed and modified.  What we are doing is not working and applying Bak’s concepts to the river system add even more uncertainty, at least in my mind, that it ever will.  We need to realistically look at removal of at least part of that 750,000 tons of debris that are clogging our rivers and really be good stewards of our environment.  It goes back to the question, 30 years ago we did do regular maintenance of our rivers and we had plentiful fish runs.  Through a myriad of factors we saw those runs reduced to dangerous levels and stopped the regular maintenance.  Since that time we have seen limited evidence that our practices are helping salmon recovery and plenty of evidence that our practices are putting lives, property and the overall environmental heath in jeopardy.   It is time to try something differently.

My Motivation

A Church that I drove by today has a saying on their billboard; “Ask if it is for your fellow man or is it financial”.  That inspired a conversation about motivations of people.  Many people are motivated by money or power; I have always been motivated by doing something because it is the right thing to do.  That is why I choose not to go negative during my reelection campaign and that is why I continue to do give back to my community. 

I have been blessed with skills that allow me to make good money.  As a Union Electrician I make over $40.00 per hour plus good benefits.  During the time I was Mayor, I constantly took time off or passed on overtime work because of commitments I made to our citizens.  I have no regrets for that as my years of service to the Citizens of Pacific will always hold a place in my heart.  As I move on I look to other ways of serving my fellow man and giving back to my community.

In spite of some opponents claiming my training in emergency management was self-serving and evidence of corruption, I will never make more money than I make now in that field.  But that is not the purpose.  Since leaving office I have spent many hours working on the update of the CEMP for our city, not because I had to, not because of money, but because of a promise I made to our citizens.  As I pass this updated CEMP to the City Council for passage, I was glad to spend the time because it protects the interest of our citizens.  But now it is time for someone else to step up in this area.

Chapter 118-30 of the Washington Administrative Code (WAC 118-30) requires jurisdictions like the City of Pacific to plan for emergencies.  The work we have done in planning, training staff and conducting exercises is required, not optional.  With tight budgets, instead of hiring a full time emergency manager, I took on many of those duties of writing the plan, creating training programs for staff and writing and conducting exercises.  Now that I have moved on, someone else is going to have to step up and do this work.

As for me, I will continue to teach classes.  The Emergency Management Preparedness Grant the City currently has requires some public education classes to be provided.  One way or another I will make sure these classes are provided.  Not just so the city can keep the grant money, but because it is the right thing to do.  The Volunteer Emergency Worker Plan we have developed is our community’s best chance of being able to survive a large scale disaster.  We do not have the staff or resources to deal with a large scale disaster that will have not only our community, but all of our neighboring jurisdictions overwhelmed.  We will be on our own for a while.

Long term, I plan on working to close a gap that I have seen firsthand in our Nation’s preparedness.  Too many of our Elected Officials do not realize the critical importance of being engaged in preparedness.  Over this past decade we have seen what happens when elected officials are unprepared to deal with a disaster.  Failures at all levels of government following Hurricane Katrina can be traced back to failures of policy leaders.  This has been the focus of much of my work over this past year and is something I plan on continuing to work on.  Not because I will see financial gain, because in fact I am more likely to see financial loss in my efforts.  I am motivated to do this because it is the right thing to do.  It is to help my fellow man and not only give back to this community but our Nation as a whole.

http://apps.leg.wa.gov/wac/default.aspx?cite=118-30-060

My feelings on Mayor Sun's falsehoods

Following Tuesday night’s City Council Meeting where Council Member Hulsey called into question Mayor Sun’s military honors he claimed during the campaign, I was asked by multiple people my thoughts and feelings over this controversy.  I think it is a shame.

This issue was brought to my attention by a couple of people during the campaign that wanted me to attack Mayor Sun over this.  I refused because I believe that the citizens of Pacific deserved a campaign based on my record not Cy Sun’s.  Also I was taught by my father, USAF Capt. Donald C Hildreth who was a military hero in my eyes to always respect the service to our nation by all service members.  For me to call his service into question would to me dishonor all veterans.

Now as for how I feel about this issue now, I hope Mayor Sun does find documentation to support his claims or that he admits that he lied to the voters quickly.  There is too much to do that this issue only distracts from.  However this is not the only issue Mayor Sun needs to come clean about.

During the campaign he made many claims about me and about dedicated employees of the city.  He exaggerated what people were paid, he lied about where they lived and he misrepresented interactions that he had with them to gain votes.  I am disappointed so many citizens were fooled by his claims in spite of my putting out proof of them being mistruths.   But now that he has the ability to check these facts himself I want him to conduct the investigation he claimed he would do and when he finds the truth, admit his error to the people.

So what do I want to see happen now.  I want Mayor Sun to provide to the citizens the facts one way or another.  If as I suspect, it shows that he lied to the voters to gain office, I hope he does the honorable thing and resigns.  The citizens deserve a leader that is more interested in serving the citizens and meeting the demanding needs of the job than winning the office at any cost.

Time to try new ideas

Nobody can deny that new ideas and innovative concepts are a series of trial and errors.  Before any success is a number of failures, taking lessons learned and adapting before trying again.  The Wright Brothers attempts at manned flight had years of attempts and failures before that historic day at Kitty Hawk.  The same principles are true when it comes to ideas and principles we base governmental decisions.  You should not keep attempting to push legislation that clearly has not had the desired success or impact desired.

In Tim Hartford’s book “Adapt” he talks about this trial and error concept and how it can be applied to the way we look at many issues.  Although much of his work is focused around the economy, I believe that we can apply these same concepts to an environmental issue that has politically divided much of our nation over this past 20 years.

The ability to innovate and to adapt has been something that throughout history has been proven to be a key requirement of success. Conversely, a failure to adapt has typically led to failure and obsolescence. We must be able to objectively judge the effectiveness of something and in this judging identify the appropriate “Identification Factor” so we can truly know when we are successful and its cause. If you have noticed that a particular plant grows better in the shade of a rook infested tree is it because that plant prospers in the shade of the tree or the increased nitrogen in the soil because of the bird droppings?  Too often we have passed legislation that may have been with good intention but even now with more than a decade of trial and error we have failed to adapt or modify our attempts.  Repeating the same failed attempts without allowing for deviation and experimentation is surely a sign of insanity. The issue I believe this concept needs to be applied to our river management theories and how those management practices impact endangered salmon and other riparian species.

I have no doubt that proponents of very restrictive land use and river management policy had good intentions when current practices were first proposed and enacted.  They too were concerned with the dramatic decrease in salmon in our rivers and hoped to address and reverse the causes by more restrictive policy.  The problem here is that this decline is what Tim Hartford would call a Fundamentally Unidentified Question.  What these proponents identified as the cause of the rapid decline could not be proven and all it has led to is political debate and a failure to really apply research try new ideas and adapt.  Just as we have debated climate change for over twenty years and have not produced one actual success, I have yet to see any documented impact that current river management practices have increased salmon or riparian recovery.  We may have seen some improvements in areas where management practices were applied, but were those improvements a direct result of those improvements or the myriad of other factors that have equal or greater impact.  In other words we have a failure to truly find appropriate identification factors for recovery.  Without knowing what factors are the appropriate measurements for success we do not really know if our efforts are effective or a waste of our resources?

I do not doubt that some of our practices over the past hundred years did harm to the health of our rivers.  I can agree with the thesis that we must combine land use practices and smart growth with our management of our rivers and river basin systems.  We need to be good stewards and do everything in our ability to limit our adverse impact on riparian heath.  However much of what we have tried over this past twenty years I believe has not only failed, but may in fact add to the negative factors we are trying to reverse.  I will use the concept of allowing our rivers to remain as natural as possible and discouraging practices that might actually improve over all heath.

In the City of Pacific where I live is the White River.  This river, a large tributary of the Puyallup River System flows off of the flanks of Mount Rainier in Washington State. This river has a long and colorful history in the region and was the topic of a virtual war between farming communities at the turn of the century.  Dams would be built or levies dynamited to divert the river first north to the Green River flooding out Auburn and then south through Stuck Creek to the Puyallup saving Auburn but flooding Sumner and Puyallup.  Finally as the result of the construction of Lake Tapps and its Power House for hydroelectric purposes the river was permanently diverted to the south.  Federal Laws required that water drawn from a river for hydroelectric purposes must be returned to the same river.  That would not have been possible flowing to the north. In 1948 Mud Mountain Dam was built to control flooding in the Puyallup River. Water would be withheld, reducing the impact until flood waters on the Puyallup itself subsided.  Water would then be released until the next flood event.

Until the practice was stopped in the mid 90’s, sections of the White River near Pacific would be periodically mined for the gravel, first diverting the river to one channel and then the other.  As a result of the Endangered Species Act this practice was stopped and the river allowed to return to a more natural condition.  The problem is that this river moves more than 750,000 tons of gravel each year as it flows downhill off of Mount Rainier.  About a mile up river of Pacific the slope of the river dramatically reduces causing much of the gravel and other debris being moved to be deposited near Pacific.  In fact so much debris has built up over the past 20 years that the capacity of the river has been reduced from over 15,000 CFS of water to under 5,000.  This reduction of capacity directly led to the flooding of over 100 homes in 2009, 65 of which were outside the 500 year flood plain designated by FEMA.  The actual floor off the river has elevated 6-8’ causing additional flooding risk and reduction of capacity.

It has been shown that Salmon require water temperatures inside a certain range.  When shade trees are removed or die off due to flooding or water becomes too shallow it has a tendency to warm up. It makes sense that if you influence deeper river channels, limit flooding by increasing capacity and promoting realistic river management practices you have increased opportunities to keep that water inside the range needed without increasing the risk of flooding.

As stated earlier, I support efforts to improve the health of our rivers and restore salmon runs and the health and habitat of other species.  I just do not believe that our current practice of discouraging appropriate maintenance of our rivers is doing that.  To date I have not found one study that documents our current practices success.  In discussions of this issue with individuals from all sides of this battle I have not seen compelling evidence that our current river management practices have led to anything other than increased threats of flooding.  I think it is time to apply the principles of Adapting and move forward from this Mexican standoff that we find ourselves in now.  We do not need to rape the riverbed of all debris by wholesale dredging to remove debris.  We can carefully scalp gravel bars during times of low water so that when flood waters rise the river has the capacity to move the water required without causing flooding.  This issue does not need to be an either /or situation, we can make this a win-win situation.  But first we need the political will for our elected leaders to stand up and recognize that current practices are not working.